Saturday, July 30, 2011

Lessons Not Learned

Tonight, Colorado Rockies RHP Ubaldo Jimenez was sent to the Cleveland Indians for minor league prospects Alex White (really a major leaguer already, making rehab starts), Drew Pomeranz (1st rounder in 2010, one year away from bigs), Matt McBride (AA 1B/OF with a solid bat), and Joe Gardner (2009 3rd round pick-starting pitcher).

As an Indians fan, I should be thrilled, right? WRONG

This trade smacks of the Bartolo Colon trade of which the Indians, including current team president Mark Shapiro, were obviously a part. A hard throwing young starter with a short history of success sent off to a team on the verge of contention and willing to give up several future stars for an immediate jolt. Just as with the Jimenez deal, the Colon trade appeared to be not only a move for the current season, but for the future as well, with both young (at the time) arms seen as the building blocks for a revival of the franchise.

But what Omar Minaya failed to remember (and what Chris Antonetti clearly has not learned) is that small market teams cannot build a team capable of long term success (see: Minnesota Twins) with one or two headline stars. In order to breed consistent contenders, small market clubs need to find a unique approach and build that approach into their minor league development process, keeping that message consistent throughout. You have to build a dynasty from within, from A through AAA all the way up to the big league club.

The A's under Billy Beane did that (see: Moneyball), the Twins have done that more recently (see what happens when they give Mauer and Morneau large contracts?- lose entire bullpen and fall out of contention immediately), and the Indians had a real opportunity to do that come 2012. Using that development philosophy (and remaining committed to developing internal prospects into internal stars), the Indians organization won league titles at A (Kinston), AA (Akron), AAA (Columbus), and the Cactus League (ok, Spring Training) in 2010. With a focus on the future and on getting into contention in 2012, things were beginning to look up for a franchise that was depleted not only by necessary trades, but also by declining production and injury from so-called "franchise players".

In order for small market teams to find success in today's MLB, they must have the ability to run baseball operations without attention to the name on the jersey. As hard as it might be, small market GMs have to treat players as commodities and ignore the personal attachment to or loathing for a player or players. When the Twins chose to let Johan Santana walk, they continued to rack up division titles. When they signed Mauer and Morneau long term, they got themselves into trouble. Even the Indians have experience with this in their failed long term deals with Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, and even Fausto Carmona. These deals handcuffed the cash strapped organization and made the rebuilding process that much more difficult.

What this deal does is completely undo all the work that has been done since July 2009 to build this organization back to where it once was thought to be headed. Staying true to their "recycling" approach, President Mark Shapiro and Antonetti devoted themselves to improving their draft classes, reaping the benefits in the form of hot commodities Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Jason Kipnis, and others. They watched Justin Masterson grow into a true ace of the staff and have found a quality number 2 in Josh Tomlin. They flooded the organization with talented young arms, powerful young bats, and a system-wide philosophy that each and every guy brought into the system was to be treated as a future major leaguer.

Now all of that work has been thrown down the drain for a pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez who has been dominant for the span of a half season (2010 first half) and average at best the rest of the time. Jimenez has struggled to a ERA over 4 this season (yes, Colorado, but also it is the NL) and his 1 inning, 4 ER performance immediately before getting pulled to head to the airport didnt help calm the anxieties of the Tribe faithful. True, he has kept his road ERA below 3 for the season (away from the mile high city), but keep in mind that the transition from the NL to the AL arguably adds more to the challenge presented to a pitcher than the humidor-era Coors Field could ever put forth.

Though Jimenez is under contract through 2013 (2014 option voided due to trade), the Indians have put themselves in a position where it is now do or die over that span. Jimenez is only going to be an Indian through the end of his contract and with the 2 top arms coming up through the organization now gone, Jimenez has to win and win a lot in order to justify the cost. He has to produce not just a division title this year, but a World Series title in 2012 or 2013.

With Jimenez having health issues (see: Hafner, Sizemore, Choo, .......), this is just a bad decision. If the Indians wanted to go after Jimenez for 2012, that would be worth looking into come the offseason, having given White and Pomeranz some more time to prove or disprove their apparent value. But to give these high ceiling guys up before they've had a chance to get into the organization is simply an irresponsible decision.

Anyway, I could continue to make an argument against this deplorable trade but I am hungry and you are probably sick of reading this. Bottom line is this trade is bad, division title or not. It is an irresponsible decision given the financial situation surrounding the organization and is a mortgaging of the future for a potential short term ticket boost in the coming months.

As an Indians fan (at least for the time being), I am disgusted with this move, utterly disgusted.

On to dinner.

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